3U3D alluded to the Marlins fire sale possibilities on July 23rd, then again on July 25th, but it wasn’t really there yet. They had kept everyone they signed in the offseason on the team…so far. Then a little fuel was added to the fire sale with Heath Bell being sent to the Diamondbacks on October 20th. Tonight, the hot stove and fire sale was set ablaze with a blockbuster deal that ends an era in Miami before it even begins and put the Blue Jays in the thick of the AL East, making it officially the toughest division in baseball. Let’s take a look at the trade that’s going down.
The Blue Jays receive: SS Jose Reyes, LHP Josh Johnson, LHP Mark Buehrle, do-it-all player Emilio Bonifacio, and C John Buck
The Marlins receive: SS Yunel Escobar, RHP Henderson Alvarez, C Jeff Mathis, and prospects Adeiny Hechevarria, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Desclafani, and Justin Nicolino
The first thought that comes to mind is wow. Look at all of that talent that is heading north of the border. The Blue Jays have decided to take on a ton of money (up to $165 million) in order to try and compete in the A.L. East. The speed throughout the order with Reyes, Bonifacio, and Rajai Davis will be the best in the American League. Buehrle and Johnson instantly become the best pitchers in Toronto and can provided veteran leadership for Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero. Romero will need it after the 2nd half he had in 2012. The Blue Jays also shed Escobar who needed a fresh start after the unfortunate, gay slur incident. I do find it interesting that the Jays brought in John Buck in the deal. The Jays have J.P. Arencibia behind the plate starting and top prospect Travis d’Arnaud looking for his opportunity in AAA. It almost makes me believe that one of those three could get moved in another move to get more pitching help. Pure speculation though.
What do the Marlins get out of this? Well obviously more PR woes and grief that they may have fleeced the city into a new stadium, while not providing a competitive team. Not to mention the continued outcry for owner Jeffrey Loria to sell the team. Miami basically stole the Red Sox reset button and brought it to little Havana. They’ve undone everything that they did in the offseason and then some. Escobar is a good, but not great player. Alvarez showed some promise in 2011, but took a step back last season. He’s still young (turns 23 early in the 2013 season) and more importantly to the Marlins, affordable. We’ve seen pitchers turn it around in the N.L. maybe Henderson Alvarez is next. Of the prospects, Marisnick is the most intriguing. He’s ranked as the #32 best prospect in MLB by ESPN’s Keith Law. Nicolino was the best left-handed pitching prospect in the Jays system. Hechevarria could replace Escobar at shortstop in the near future and was ranked by MLB.com as the 7th best prospect for Toronto.
What does Miami do next? There are rumors that Giancarlo Stanton could be next on the block, with Stanton even saying on Twitter that he was pissed off at the situation. Fans for every team are already comtemplating trades to get the slugger on their team. Time will tell if the fire sale rages on in Miami.
-Bryan Mapes ( @IAmMapes)
It’s official. The Dodgers and Red Sox have completed a ridiculous nine-player swap that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and a whole bunch of crappy contracts to Los Angeles, in exchange for James Loney and some prospects to Boston.
Holy cow. Let me get this out of the way as a Dodger fan: WOOOOOHOOOOOO!
Okay, thanks. That being said, let me explain how this trade affects both teams, and then I’ll leave it up to you to vote which team got the better deal.
Here’s how it breaks down:
1B James Loney
SP Rubby De La Rosa (AAA)
SP Allen Webster (AA)
OF Jerry Sands (AAA)
IF Ivan De Jesus (AAA)
Los Angeles receives:
1B Adrian Gonzalez
SP Josh Beckett
OF Carl Crawford
UTIL Nick Punto
If you’re a casual baseball fan, you might think Wow, the Dodgers just scored 3 All-Stars!
Little do you know, Beckett and Crawford are owed big money for little production and spotty health over the last year or more. Punto is simply a utility player but a great clubhouse guy who can contribute to a winning team (just ask the 2011 Cardinals). Besides, it’s a huge upgrade over Juan Uribe and Adam Kennedy.
If Crawford comes back healthy from Tommy John surgery in 2014, he could be worth the money. Before being signed by Boston, Crawford was annually one of the better all-around players in baseball. Who knows – maybe a change of scenery does him well, but I don’t expect anything out of him.
Beckett has a chance to shine in L.A., but that’s based on a bunch of big “if’s” as well. IF Beckett stays healthy. IF he keeps the ball down. Worst case scenario, the Dodgers have a seasoned veteran with tons of postseason experience to help guide guys like Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang through a potential playoff berth. But, with Chad Billingsley’s possible elbow injury, adding a usually mediocre, formerly incredible starting pitcher is something sorely needed right now.
And do I really have to explain why Gonzalez was a great pick up? He hit .338 last year in Boston and has also been a perennial All-Star throughout his career. He can hit 30 homers, drive in 100 runs and bat .300 as his career numbers will attest to. Plus, he’s won multiple gold gloves at first base. So you’re telling me the Dodgers swapped a .250-hitting, powerless, smooth-fielding James Loney for a .300-hitting, powerful, smooth-fielding Gonzalez? I’ll take it.
Before I move on to analyzing what the Red Sox obtained in this deal, let me remind everyone of two things. If the Twitter world is the collective opinion of baseball fans, I’m seriously worried for the sanity of the sport’s fan base. So, here goes:
1) Money doesn’t matter. The new ownership of the Dodgers paid $2 billion to buy the team, and will be securing a $4 billion TV deal soon. They will over pay, and they openly admit it. Money is NOT an issue. They can take on all those big contracts and blow their noses with the $100 bills.
2) Telling me the Dodgers don’t have the pitching to win the division is not backed up by statistics. As of today, the Dodgers still have the second-best ERA in the National League as a team, two spots ahead of the pitching-heavy San Francisco Giants (also leading them in batting average against, strikeouts and quality starts). Until that changes, please don’t tell me the Dodgers have no pitching, because five months into the season those numbers are no longer “flukes.”
Back to business. Some of the prospects the Red Sox received might be no-names to the casual baseball fan. But let me tell you, Boston received a pretty good haul. In addition to ridding themselves of about $78.5 gazillion in salary, they picked up two high-ceiling starting pitchers and two hitters who have a shot at developing into legitimate every day players.
James Loney could also benefit from a change of scenery. Once considered an elite prospect, he looked well on his way to becoming a star about five years ago with the Dodgers. Then came a dip in power. Then a dip in average. A dip in RBI. Now, he’s one of the most average offensive bats you’ll find. Except he’s not even going to reach 10 home runs this season.
I love James Loney. He’s been one of my favorite players on the Dodgers for a number of years (I even have his jersey – oh, what to do with it now?!) and I hold a high value on defensive prowess, which he possesses a lot of.
I truly hope Loney does well in Boston. But with free agency looming in 2013, chances are he won’t be around for them anyway. Guys that will hang around are these three AAA and one AA players they acquired.
The one with the highest ceiling in my opinion is Allen Webster, the AA starter. He was an 18th-round draft choice in 2008 that many thought might have a better career down the road than Dodgers’ top prospect Zach Lee after both started to develop in the minors.
MLB.com ranks Webster their 65th best prospect in baseball right now, mostly due to a mid-90’s sinker, plus-curveball and plus-change. He really does have a great chance to be a future star in Boston.
De La Rosa is in the same boat – he just made his first appearance back with the Dodgers after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John. But before, during and after the surgery reviews about him were rave. He throws very hard: about an average of 95, just a bit higher than Justin Verlander’s average, and he has topped out at 99.
De La Rosa needs to work on his willingness to work the inside part of the plate, and gain confidence in his secondary pitches so hitters can’t sit on the heater. As he matures, these issues should be sorted out and De La Rosa could become a poor man’s Pedro Martinez if he doesn’t stray from the path mentally or physically.
Jerry Sands can play outfield or first base and has shown tons of promising power in the minors. That being said, the Pacific Coast League is notorious for inflating young players’ numbers because it’s such an offense-friendly league. In a few stints in the Majors with Los Angeles, Sands showed very infrequent flashes of potential. Most of his time was spent trolling around the Mendoza line with little power and plate discipline to show for it.
The same can be said for De Jesus. I believe he has more potential than Sands overall, but is a smaller-name player so goes unnoticed. De Jesus had some big appearances for the Dodgers in 2012 and could become a spark player for the Red Sox down the road if developed properly.
It’s hard to tell in a trade like this who “wins” per se. Loney for Gonzalez is an obvious win for the Dodgers. And for right NOW, I have to say L.A. won the trade. They are going for a World Series title, no matter the cost. But the fact that they got a huge left-handed bat, a potential number two starter and an improvement on the bench AND were able to keep Dee Gordon and Zach Lee, speaks for itself.
But, if Boston develops the four young players they received in the deal properly, we’re talking about one or two potential impact bats and the possibility of two middle of the rotation starters. Down the road, the Red Sox may be reloading for another big run.
– Jeremy Dorn (@Jamblinman)