We’re heading into week four! There are a lot of changes coming with players hitting the disabled list and players behind them getting some extra playing time. Here’s a recap of who were among the top added and dropped in ESPN fantasy baseball leagues during week three and what to do now.
Week Three Pops
Chris Johnson, Atlanta Braves, 1B/3B: ESPN +73.9%
My undying love of Chris Johnson pays off in week three as my “predicted pop” each of the last two weeks finally gets added in the ton of leagues, I even talked about him on this week’s podcast. I also did pretty well with “pops” Tony Cingrani, Daniel Nava, and Joaquin Benoit. If you grabbed Johnson I would use him this week on the road against the Rockies and he should get DH at-bats against the Tigers. With Freddie Freeman’s return though, Johnson will soon be back in a platoon with Juan Francisco. Sell high while he’s leading the NL in batting average!
Edward Mujica, St. Louis Cardinals, RP: ESPN +50.1%
Who’s gonna be the closer for Mike Matheny’s squad? Jason Motte seems destined for Tommy John surgery. Mitchell Boggs has been horrendous in 2013 and that might be an understatement. Trevor Rosenthal is an intriguing option, but it looks like the job for now belongs to journeyman Edward Mujica. If he can keep the job for the season I’d expect 30 saves. Grab him while you still can.
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants, SS: ESPN +68.2%
To quote Randolph and Mortimer Duke from “Trading Places” get in there and SELL SELL SELL! I don’t think he’s remotely this good. He’s a great glove at shortstop, but a career .242 hitter and is already one home run short of the four he hit last year in 435 at-bats. There’s some growth here, but if you can get Derek Jeter’s owner to overpay for him at shortstop or middle infielder, you have to pull the trigger on a trade.
Predicting next week’s pops: Brett Anderson, Athletics, SP, Lorenzo Cain, Royals, OF, Wandy Rodriguez, Pirates, SP
Week Three Drops
Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, SS: ESPN -36.3%
It’s no longer time to hold on to the Yankees captain as his ankle injury will now keep him out through the All-star break. In standard leagues that only have one DL spot, there are better players (Jose Reyes, Jered Weaver, Ryan Zimmerman) for you to be using your DL spot on. Even when he comes back I don’t think we see the player you’re expecting and there will be not as much speed. Just a batting average play at best.
Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals, 3B: ESPN -33%
The Royals really have a chance to contend this year but Moustakas and teammate Eric Hosmer are going to have to pick up the pace. Moustakas is never going to hit for average, but you were hoping there would be a chance at a 25-30 home run season. Instead he hasn’t gone yard this season and has just one RBI on the year. I still slightly believe, so if he’s been dropped in your league, throw him on a watch list as May and June were his best month in 2012.
Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants, SP: ESPN -30.4%
Is there a pitcher that can have one bad start and elicit such a drop-off as Barry Zito? He gets rocked on the road by the Brewers (9 earned runs), but hasn’t given up a single run in 21 innings at AT&T Park this season with 3 wins. He’s a match-up play, but one of my favorite match-up spot starts this season, especially at home. I just wish he could drop under 50% so I can use him for #MapesFantasySpecial’s again.
Predicting next week’s drops: Adam Dunn, White Sox, 1B, Kendrys Morales, Mariners 1B, and Dan Haren, Nationals, SP
-Bryan Mapes (@IAmMapes)
In about six weeks, the World Baseball Classic will be upon us again and Team USA will look to win its first title in the competition’s history. They’ve got a good shot — manager Joe Torre released his roster on Thursday, and they are absolutely loaded.
Unfortunately for fans of Team USA, one glance at a few competing rosters will stop the celebration in its tracks. Can someone unseat two-time defending champions, Team Japan? Will Team USA improve upon their 4th-place finish in 2009?
We can’t predict the results down to the wire, but we’re here to do what we do best at Three Up, Three Down. We rank the rosters! So strap in, baseball fans, and see if your favorite team stands a chance:
**The “Stick to Soccer” Group**
Notable player(s): Barry Larkin, Manager (and Hall of Fame Reds SS)
International Baseball Federation (IBAF) Ranking: 20
Breakdown: Good thing for their dominance on the international soccer scene, because Brazil isn’t going anywhere in the Classic. Yan Gomes was the first Brazilian player to ever reach the big leagues, and the country itself only has 14 players signed to Major League contracts. How they will win: They won’t. Why they won’t: See “How they will win.”
Notable player(s): Bruce Chen, SP, Royals
IBAF Ranking: 18
Breakdown: The Chinese baseball team is a decade away from being a serious contender, but they are headed in the right direction. They’ve made steady improvements over international tournaments since a decent showing at the 2009 WBC, in which they eliminated Chinese Taipei. How they will win: Hustle, starting pitching. Why they won’t: Not enough of either.
Notable player(s): Paco Rodriguez, RP, Dodgers/Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers
IBAF Ranking: 16
Breakdown: I’m not sure what to think about Spain. They lack star power, but did knock off Israel and South Africa in qualifiers. The roster is dotted with promising Major League prospects, but I don’t foresee Spain winning more than a game, maybe two in the WBC. How they will win: Breakout tourney from Beltre. Why they won’t: Their Pool C competition is stacked (Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Dominican Republic).
Notable player(s): Jason Grilli, RP, Pirates/Francisco Cervelli, C, Yankees/Nick Punto, IF, Dodgers/Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs/Chris Denorfia, OF, Padres
IBAF Ranking: 9
Breakdown: Not only did we miss out on a Hall of Fame induction for Mike Piazza, but he won’t be participating on Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic either. Props to the Italians for back-to-back Euro Championships, but the competition is pretty weak over there right now. I think they will be humbled in the WBC. How they will win: Play with a chip on their shoulder. Why they won’t: Even the MLB-level hitters are thin.
#12: KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Notable Player(s): Jair Jurrjens, SP, MLB Free Agent/Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox/Jurickson Profar, 2B, Rangers/Jonathan Schoop, 3B, Orioles/Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves/Roger Bernadina, OF, Nationals/Andruw Jones, OF, MLB Free Agent
IBAF Ranking: 7
Breakdown: The Dutch soccer team is one of my favorites to watch. And for the first time in recent memory, so will their baseball team. They just missed my “dark horse” cut, due to sheer overall talent of the rest of the field. But the Major League potential of some youngsters on this roster is extremely intriguing. They’ve won 20 of 32 Euro Championships ever played. How they will win: Infield of dreams breaks out. Why they won’t: Not all the youngsters will perform.
**The Dark Horses**
#11: SOUTH KOREA
Notable player(s): Jae Seo, SP, former Met, Dodger, Ray in MLB
IBAF Ranking: 4
Breakdown: I feel ridiculous ranking Korea this low, considering their past successes in the WBC. But, it’s the third time this tournament has been played and each team has scouting on the opposition now. I don’t think South Korea will sneak up on anyone this time around. How they will win: High on-base percentage, good defense. Why they won’t: Too much good competition.
Notable player(s): Peter Moylan, RP, Dodgers
IBAF Ranking: 10
Breakdown: There’s a handful of good Major League players (like A’s closer Grant Balfour) who hail from the land down under, but there isn’t a whole lot of MLB experience on this roster. Team Australia still has a shot at advancing, but they may have more trouble than in years past. How they will win: Pure grit. Why they won’t: Not enough runs, upstart opposition in Pool B.
Notable player(s): Jesse Crain, RP, White Sox/John Axford, RP, Brewers/Jameson Taillon, SP, Pirates/Russell Martin, C, Pirates/Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays/Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins
IBAF Ranking: 6
Breakdown: We all know that Canada produces some bona fide stars in MLB (Joey Votto, anyone?), but not all are present and accounted for on this roster, similar to Team Australia. They still have the talent to make a run with Lawrie, Morneau and Martin in the middle of the lineup though. How they will win: Dominant bullpen, good middle of the lineup. Why they won’t: Too much youth in the rotation.
#8: CHINESE TAIPEI
Notable player(s): Chien-Ming Wang, SP, MLB Free Agent
IBAF Ranking: 5
Breakdown: There’s a reason that Team Chinese Taipei is a top-five ranked country right now. But their proudest current professional representative (Orioles pitcher Wei-Yin Chen) is not on the team yet. This team is still legit, and has a very winnable pool group. How they will win: Small ball. Why they won’t: Overall talent is lacking.
**The “Justtttt A Bit Outside” Group**
#7: PUERTO RICO
Notable player(s): Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals/Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals/Angel Pagan, OF, Giants/Mike Aviles, IF, Indians/Javier Vasquez, SP, MLB Free Agent
IBAF Ranking: 12
Breakdown: There may be no more high-ceiling-yet-average team in the WBC this year. Team Puerto Rico has finished fifth at both tournaments preceding this, and killed Team USA in 2009 before being ousted by them two games later on a walk-off hit. Even with players such as Molina, Beltran and Pagan, they won’t even be favorites in their own pool. How they will win: The Major League talent they have is relentlessly good. Why they won’t: Lack of depth in the rotation.
Notable player(s): Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Dodgers/Luis Cruz, 3B, Dodgers/Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers/Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals/Sergio Romo, RP, Giants
IBAF Ranking: 11
Breakdown: In their pool, Team Mexico will have to deal with Team USA, but other than that they should be favored to top Team Canada and Team Italy to move on. They have a decent infield, top-of-the-line ace, and one of the best closers in baseball. How they will win: Adrian Gonzalez goes off, Gallardo is dominant. Why they won’t: Romo is neutralized unless they have a lead late.
Notable player(s): None
IBAF Ranking: 1
Breakdown: Don’t let the lack of notable players deceive you — this team is good. Really good. They have played in the IBAF World Cup 29 times and won 25 gold medals, finishing second the other four times. In the WBC, Team Cuba has finished second and fourth (which, at the time, was their lowest finish ever in international competition). They just can’t legally have players like Aroldis Chapman or Yoenis Cespedes on their squad, otherwise they might be even better. How they will win: Hard-throwing starters, handful of five-tool prospects. Why they won’t: The top four teams are just too stacked.
Notable player(s): None
IBAF Ranking: 3
Breakdown: Again, don’t let the lack of Major League firepower fool you. Much like Cuba, Team Japan has been a hotbed for MLB stars over the years (Daisuke Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish). Even though none of them joined the fray in 2013, this team is stacked. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of future MLB players come off this roster after good WBC performances. After all, they are two-for-two in WBC titles up to this point. How they will win: Ichiro-style on-base scavengers, deceptive pitching. Why they won’t: Not having Ichiro and Darvish, among others, will end up costing Team Japan.
#3: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Notable player(s): Santiago Casilla, RP, Giants/Octavio Dotel, RP, Tigers/Alexi Ogando, RP, Rangers/Fernando Rodney, RP, Rays/Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Pirates/Edinson Volquez, SP, Reds/Carlos Santana, C, Indians/Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers/Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees/Edwin Encarnacion, DH/OF, Blue Jays/Hanley Ramirez, IF, Dodgers/Jose Reyes, SS, Blue Jays/Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers/Melky Cabrera, OF, Blue Jays
IBAF Ranking: 13
Breakdown: The only reason Team Dominica is ranked so low by the IBAF is because all those notable players are stars in the big leagues, and don’t regularly compete internationally for their country. But now that the WBC has rolled around again, this is one unbelievably good team. My only concern is their starting pitching depth. How they will win: Scoring 15 runs per game (no…really). Why they won’t: Like I said, starting pitching depth. Will Volquez and Rodriguez be enough?
#2: UNITED STATES
Notable player(s): Jeremy Affeldt, RP, Giants/R.A. Dickey, SP, Blue Jays/Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves/Kris Medlen, SP, Braves/Ryan Vogelsong, SP, Giants/Chris Perez, RP, Indians/Joe Mauer, C, Twins/Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds/Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies/David Wright, 3B, Mets/Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees/Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers/Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins/Adam Jones, OF, Orioles/Joe Torre, Manager
IBAF Ranking: 2
Breakdown: I didn’t even pick all the “notable players” I could have for this team. It’s Team USA’s equivalent of the MLB Dream Team, and Justin Verlander still is undecided as to whether he’ll join the rotation. This team is already a favorite with a balanced lineup and very strong pitching staff, but adding JV would be a coup. Check out fellow Three Up, Three Down host Bryan Mapes’ grades-by-position for Team USA. How they will win: Veteran experience, explosive pitching. Why they won’t: The bane of their existence, Team Japan, will come along eventually.
Notable player(s): Anibal Sanchez, SP, Tigers/Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners/Francisco Rodriguez, RP, MLB Free Agent/Ronald Belisario, RP, Dodgers/Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks/Salvador Perez, C, Royals/Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers/Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians/Miguel Cabrera, 3B/1B, Tigers/Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants/Marco Scutaro, 2B, Giants/Carols Gonzalez, OF, Rockies/Gerardo Parra, OF, Diamondbacks
IBAF Ranking: 8
Breakdown: The quantity of star power on Team Venezuela might not match up to Team USA or Team Dominica, but the quality is far and beyond. When you start your rotation with Hernandez and stack the middle of your lineup with the reigning Triple Crown winner between Gonzalez and Sandoval, you are a very, very scary team. Even though their WBC pool is very tough, it would be a momentous upset to not see Team Venezuela make moves in the 2013 tournament. How they will win: A large margin of victory. Against anyone. Why they won’t: Slumping hitters or being outplayed by one of the other favorites.
And that’s a wrap. This writer believes Team Venezuela is the team to beat, with Team USA, Team Dominica and Team Japan not far behind. But in all honesty, there are about 10-11 teams who could potentially take home the title in 2013. Root for your team and country to take home top honors, and stay tuned to Three Up, Three Down because we’ll have all your World Baseball Classic coverage.
– Jeremy Dorn (@Jamblinman)
We’re 11 days from the trade deadline, and the only move of any significance that has been made is Carlos Lee to the Miami Marlins. Yawn.
That doesn’t bode well for our brilliant, new, yet under-utilized blog segment, “Grade That Trade!” But seeing as how there are so many potential trades just knocking on the door right now, baseball fans should be excited about the wheeling and dealing that’s bound to go down in the next week or so.
For the purpose of this blog, I’ll stay away from big fish like Cole Hamels, Zach Greinke, Ryan Dempster and Josh Willingham. These are the lesser-known guys who I think will be on the move.
Here are five players I guarantee will be traded before the deadline ends:
Rodriguez failed his latest audition miserably, giving up five earned runs in four innings against the Padres, and dropping his record below .500 (7-8). He has been one of the more consistent under-the-radar starters in MLB for a while now, and with the ‘Stros in full-on rebuilding mode, this should be the year he is moved. Rodriguez would be a great middle-of-the-rotation addition for a team desperate for a late-season run at the playoffs.
Jeremy’s Prediction: Rodriguez goes to the Orioles for Jake Arrieta and a minor league pitcher. Though the contract is a bit hefty, the O’s add a 3rd solid starter behind Wei-Yin Chen and Jason Hammel to try and regain a lead in the Wild Card.
Another lefty on the market here has started gaining a lot of attention among contenders, based on superb performances recently. Liriano has certainly had his ups and downs, but the last two starts especially have shown teams he still has something to give. He struck out 25 batters combined in those starts, and if not for two bad pitches (a grand slam to Jonny Gomes and a two-run homer to Adam Jones), he would have had an unblemished ERA.
Jeremy’s Prediction: The Yankees scoop up Liriano in a deal for two minor league pitchers. The Twins get a couple starters to develop, and the Yanks get immediate help that they need with Andy Pettitte shelved and Freddy Garcia struggling.
Apparently, no potential trade piece is demanding of a higher price than Headley. It makes sense. He’s just entering his prime, has a lot of power from both sides of the plate, and is still under team control until 2015. But Padres’ GM Josh Byrnes might stop playing hard to get as the deadline gets closer. A lot of teams still in the hunt could use an extra bat in the middle of the lineup.
Jeremy’s Prediction: The Pirates, desperate to add a bat, put together a good package of prospects that doesn’t include Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, or Starling Marte to land Headley. Inserted into a lineup with Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, the Buccos suddenly look even more dangerous down the stretch.
The Jays are convinced that Adeiny Hechavarria is ready to make the leap to the Majors, so Escobar is expendable. I have to assume Toronto is in the market for young pitching, considering the unfortunate Tommy John epidemic that has hit their staff this season. The best fits for a trade for Escobar are probably Pittsburgh, Seattle and Oakland. All three have good pitching prospects and gaping holes at shortstop.
Jeremy’s Prediction: Billy Beane decides to capitalize on his surprisingly successful 2012 roster and make a run at the Wild Card (the A’s are only a 1/2 game back as of July 20th) by trading two pitching prospects to Canada for Escobar. The A’s add a little more pop to the lineup, the Jays have some more talent down on the farm to develop and *hopefully* keep healthy.
This is an interesting option. The M’s are less likely to give up Vargas without a fight, now that they’ve gotten interest from a number of playoff contenders in need of pitching. My thought is that Seattle is overflowing with minor league pitching talent, but still hurting for some hitting. They have a ton of pieces, but a Vargas-for-AAA-hitter swap would do wonders for the Mariners’ future.
Jeremy’s Prediction: In somewhat of a surprise, the Cardinals jump head first back into the NL Central race by acquiring Vargas for slugger Matt Adams. St. Louis can afford to give away a high-potential first baseman for two reasons: He struggled in his call-up this year, and they have Allen Craig. If Adams pans out, the Mariners are sitting pretty in a couple years.
– Jeremy (@Jamblinman)